Donald Trump is back, what in it for Kenya?

Donald Trump won the just ended 2024 elections being the 45^th and 47^th POTUS, perhaps the most consequential election in the recent history making the greatest political comeback to the Whitehouse and marking presidential history as the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since 1897 and being the second one after Grover Cleveland being the 22^nd and 24^th president of the United States. In simple terms he made a remarkable history! However, his pronounced radical conservativism in matters culture and strong protectionism in matters economy and foreign policy has undoubtedly left global leaders anxious of what is to be unpredictable nature of leadership for the next four years. 

America is the greatest power both in economic, military and cultural diversity therefore what transpires there is unignorably important. And that is perhaps the reason why global political leaders, business honchos and investors are always being on the alert of US affairs.

Kenya-US relations have been strong and promising over the years, their relationship is ostensibly pillared by the shared values of democracy, capitalism and most importantly, a common desire for peace in East Africa region. This is evident in their ongoing partnership security missions in Somalia to destroy Al shaabab, attempt to broker peace in war tone Sudan, restoring safety in war-stricken DRC and the most current one, the Haiti Mission. On democracy, Kenya is the most stable democracy in East Africa founded on principles of respect of rule of law, freedom of speech, respect of human rights and fairer elections compared to other African countries. In regards to economic relationships, United States is currently the largest market for Kenya’s Arabica coffee, and also part of Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and Generalized System of Preferences program, duty-free agreements between Africa and US that allows easier accessibility of US markets by eligible sub-Sahara African countries. On the other hand, Kenya plays a pivotal role to US economic and security interests in East Africa. Perhaps Kenya is one of the few remaining African countries that still strengthen relations with US as most of African countries are increasingly  leaning more to China.

 

As I mentioned earlier, While Russia and China are on unending campaign to unseat US superiority in the global stage, fact is, US is still dominantly the greatest economic and military power in the world. Although Trump has during the campaigns stated that America first the rest second implying a renewed strength of protectionist approach of global leadership, isolating his country from global community, he still want to continue with the US global influence as the greatest power. Determined to settle Ukraine-Russia war in day 1, settle Israel-Gaza war in number of days, imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports, imposing 25% tariff on Mexico’s imported products if it fails to bar its citizens from illegally entering the US through southern border , exiting from NATO or forcing NATO allies to pay their outstanding shares, downplaying existential threat posed by climate change among many others proves that his ambitions for the country  reflect traditional US incentives which is continue its global supremacy in global affairs.

 

Special focus is on how Kenya is bracing for Trump 2.0. Is Kenya going to roll back its recovering relations with US or will it go back to previous regime’s pro-China foreign policy in lieu of US. Will the Kenya led Haiti mission funded by the US proceed as was envisioned or be otherwise stopped, is Kenya’s status of major non-NATO US ally likely to yield tiny output for Kenya. On continental front, will US cut down on US-Africa economic engagements and what does it mean for AGOA which is expiring next year 2025.

Everything might seem uncertain about how Trump’s leadership and his relation with global leaders will look like, but there is one thing we know as of now. We know that he is devote nationalist, a proud protectionist and an unapologetic anti-globalist. And this is what is worrying the global community.  Let‘s delve on goals Trump want to achieve that I think will likely affect Kenya and Africa directly;

Mass deportation of “Illegal Immigrants” Programme

During his campaign period, Trump was profoundly pronounced on issue of Immigrations crisis. Most Americans believe that there is high presence of illegal immigrants in the country. In fact, this is perhaps one of  the reasons he won in 2016 when he promised ‘he will build the wall and make Mexico pay for it’. The current administration has been viewed as failing to address this immigration menace and therefore Trump took advantage of it to win American voters. But another category of illegals are those that went to the US maybe as student with a student visa and never returned to their home countries after finishing studies . They currently reside in the US without proper documentation. He vows to target them and deport to their home countries. There is large section of Kenyans in the US that in this category that fear deported in the looming mass deportation of illegal immigrants. This policy will also pose difficulties to those who would wish to go study in the US. Being that immigration is on the top of Trump’s to-do list, young Kenyans aspiring to study in US universities will have to wait little bit longer. Deadline for Green Card application has just ended but I fear winners will be barred to actually travel to the US.

   Increasing Tariffs on import

If there is one message he has sloganized really well to his advantage  is Making American Great Again.  His first term was marred by endless trade wars with US major trading partners, majorly China. He vows to continue with his ambitions to make China finding hard to access US markets. To his perspective, other countries are taking advantage of the US markets and that will have to stop. Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods or products. Countries impose tariffs on countries’ products to protect local industry, promote domestic consumption, raise revenues and exert political influence and this is what he is aiming against China.

Trumps aim to make imported products as especially manufactured cars, energy and technology more expensive to make those produced in America competitive. He aims to continue with his first term trade policy that intends to bring back jobs to the United States. In essence, heavy tariffs on China will provoke a trade war between the two and I think this is positive to Kenya and African countries since will resort to African markets since there access to their major market  will have been blocked. This implies that African markets will enjoy the advantage of being a needed  market to China, forcing them to provide their supplies cheaper to African markets.  However, it will be uneasy for US to continue with this policy in the medium term to long-term since China is also a big market for US small-medium enterprises to which if it retaliate with heavy tariffs they will be  extremely hurt.

 

      Countering China, Russia and other adversaries

Americans believe that China is the biggest economic adversary of the US, as China is increasingly becoming the centre for global economy. It undoubted that China have over the years outcompeted US in the globe economic space both domestic and global outlook. Domestically, China has invaded US markets reaping billions of dollars of profits while making goods and products manufactured within the US less competitive thus the heavy tariffs policy. Globally, china has increased its influence in Africa, a region that has been under the US grip over years through multilateral institutions such as World Bank and IMF and giving humanitarian aid.

Further, China is on campaign alongside Russia rallying the world against US economic hegemony through organizations such as BRICS+. BRICS+ has presented its threats to US economic power encouraging its members to avoid use of the US dollar in the global trade. Notably, the use of US dollar both as world’s reserve currency and in global trade have declined overtime. This has also enabled US sanctioned countries such as Russia to trade easily among each other. While BRICS have not grown enough to match US economic power, its continuous expansion is something that US and western countries is worried about. However, over the years China has spread its interests in Africa through tightening strategic trade and investment partnerships aiming to fully unseat US power in the region. Africa is the fastest growing continent, host of at least 30% of world’s critical resources and has tremendous business potential. China has eyed and secured extraction of these resources in exchange of robust infrastructure support programs to African countries. During 2024 China-Africa Summit China committed $50B support to Africa for three years. Most African countries are leaning more towards China in regards to resource mobilization for their development ambitions while avoiding their traditional sources; the West-leaning multilateral institutions; IMF and World Bank. Biden administrations attempted to reverse rising China’s influence in the region with an aim of bringing back Africa closer to the US through various engagement frameworks.

For instance, his administration had join the call for entry of Africa’s representation in the UN security council, declaring Kenya a major non-NATO ally, committing $55B as humanitarian aid to security risks countries, food insecure regions, drought-stricken countries especially in East Africa. Although Biden administration efforts were geared towards  restoring  US grip in Africa,  which is a key  traditional US incentive in the region, Trump administration seem to take a different pattern  as what is likely to dictate his engagement with Africa is how those partnerships and agreements  will play out beneficial to the  US. Will it mean that Africa will all be left for China and Russia? Russia is another actor that has been increasing its presence in Africa. In the recent years Africa has seen increased military and financial support from Russia especially those countries that have destabilized by civil wars and coups. Through its foreign military wing Wagner group, Russia has provided security support to western African countries. During Uhuru regime, Kenya had leaned to the east, funding flagship projects such as Standard gauge railway, Nairobi expressway and Konza techno polis city with resources borrowed from the China. However policy trend was reversed by the current administration that seems to be pro-US in its foreign policy.

In sum, Trump’s comeback is something to watch as it pose uncertainty to African countries such as Kenya. The renewed energy in US-Kenya relations during the tail end of Biden administration could possibly face setbacks. Benefits resulting from the Kenya’s status of major non-NATO ally of the US might not be ultimately realized by Kenya if Trump’s transactional approach in foreign relations will precede its US-Africa engagements. However, this does not imply that US will roll back its involvement in security intervention in the regions. The existing US-Africa security partnerships to address instabilities in Somalia, Sudan and DRC are likely to continue as peace and security remains a key US interest in the region. Another thing that Kenya and its allies are uncertain about is the fate of the ongoing Haiti intervention being led by Kenya and funded by the US. We will have to wait and watch what unfolds moving forward.